The smell of war drives away migrants

 Since World War II, the European Union (EU) and also NATO have been an island of peaceful coexistence and safe investments. The storms of war have plagued Africa and Asia and South America, and the associated economic or financial crises. All these causes of impossible living conditions in their everyday lives have brought waves of migrants to peaceful countries. In addition to legally approved migration due to the war situation in their countries, there are also illegal ones.

The EU itself is now already facing the threat of war, as is NATO as a whole. The threat of interference in wars by peripheral countries such as Ukraine and Russia, and now Israel and Palestine, Lebanon and Yemen, is endless. As are discussions about economic sanctions. Missiles are now flying around the outskirts of the once peaceful oasis of coexistence, or at least the military power of the opponents is being demonstrated. Of course, such pre-war conditions also show their power in the deterioration of economic or financial performance.

This smell of war and also the economic crisis has also brought the EU and NATO a reduction in migrant flows, including illegal ones, as the ideal of coexistence, peace and economic prosperity simply dissipates and dries up amid constant threats of military attacks or military interventions to help some attacked countries.

In Slovenia alone, in the first two months of 2025, there was a more than 50% drop in the number of illegal migrants. In the first two months of last year, the Border Police Sector recorded 6,353. In the first two months of this year, there were only 2,386. The largest number of illegal migrants came from Afghanistan, where the Taliban ruled. In the first two months of 2024, 6,101 illegal migrants applied for international protection, mostly from Syria, Morocco and Afghanistan. In the first two months of 2025, 2,034 illegal migrants expressed their intention to seek international protection, most of whom came from Afghanistan, Morocco and Bangladesh.

Illegal entries into Slovenia are fewer, but the number of unauthorized stays in Slovenia has increased. In the first two months of 2024, there were 223 such cases. In the first two months of 2025, this number increased to 347. Given the threat of war, we can only hope that this higher number of illegal stays in Slovenia is a reflection of increased control over illegal migration and illegal settlements, since such migrants who are illegally residing in Slovenia also have a greater chance of military espionage or preparations for a military invasion and support for foreign military forces than the domestic population. Given the extremely mild or hearty and generous policy towards migrants and also towards illegal migrants of both Slovenia and the EU and until this year also the USA, there should be no need for illegal entry or illegal settings. We used to joke that any migrant who criticizes the situation in his country a little gets legal entry into the EU and NATO countries without any problems and also at least basic living conditions.

Perhaps in the future, EU and NATO citizens will also ask themselves to which island of peace and coexistence and economic prosperity we can retreat to and hide from the storm of war. But there is very little chance that the countries we have helped will repay us for this help in the future.

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