Migrants choose safe routes

 World War II lasted for most countries on the European continent for four years, from 1941 to 1945. With some exceptions, such as Poland, it has been going on since 1939. The state of war between Ukraine and Russia will last the same four years for the second year in February. For now, this war between Ukraine and Russia has not yet escalated into a global Third World War, although it shows signs of beginning, and at other times we are talking about an upcoming peace or peace agreement. In any case, the European continent, on which the European Union (EU) is located, has gone from being an oasis of peace to a potential war hotbed, which is most likely also recognized as such by potential migrants for one reason or another.

In the first eleven months of this year, 25% fewer illegal migrants entered the EU, which means around 166,900 illegal migrants according to official data, of course, but the number of illegal migrants in reality may be higher or lower. Their route to the EU has also changed somewhat and, according to the data, the Main, meaning the most numerous route, of illegal migration is the Central Mediterranean route and we could say that illegal migrants are also choosing safer Central and Western routes to the EU in order to avoid the eastern war threat due to the Ukraine-Russia war. The attack on Israel or the Israeli-Palestinian war, which is expanding at least to an attack from Iran and Lebanon, plays only a secondary role in the choice of migration route, as we can interpret according to the data on illegal migration according to the Frontex agency.

A 43% decrease in illegal migrants was recorded on the so-called Western Balkan route. Thus, 11,862 of them entered the EU illegally in the first eleven months. The largest number of illegal migrants came from Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan.

A -29% decrease in illegal migrants was recorded on the Eastern Mediterranean route and a -37% decrease on the EU's eastern border, and along the so-called eastern land border. 46,158 migrants entered the EU illegally via the Eastern Mediterranean route. Most of them came from Afghanistan, Sudan and Egypt. 10,456 entered the EU illegally via the Eastern land route along the Polish border. The largest number of illegal migrants via this route came from Ukraine and Somalia.

A -1% decrease in illegal migrants was also observed on the Central Mediterranean route. However, 63,231 illegal migrants arrived via this route. Most of these illegal migrants came from Bangladesh, Egypt and Eritrea.

The West African route was also recorded, but it also fell by 60%. However, 16,829 people arrived via this route. Most of the illegal migrants via this route came from Mali, Senegal and Guinea.

The only illegal migrant route where an increase of 15% was observed is the so-called Western Mediterranean route, which leads mainly to Spain. In the first 11 months of this year, 17,964 people have arrived via this route. Algeria, Somalia and Morocco account for the largest share of illegal migrants via this route.

Exit from the EU to the UK has recorded zero change. In numbers, this still means 62,240 illegal migrants. The majority of these exit migrants from the EU and then exit to the UK come from Eritrea, Iran and Afghanistan.

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