A surge of migrants in the EU?

 If the EU last year promised a decline in migrant waves, especially illegal ones, the data on illegal migrants in the first two months of 2026 is worrying. In both months of this year, many more illegal migrants arrived via the southern migration route across the Schengen border into the European Union (EU), which is guarded by Croatia. However, the number of illegal migrations has also increased in Slovenia. In January this year, the EU recorded a 60% drop in illegal migrations.

According to data from the Slovenian border police, an increase in illegal migrations was already recorded in January 2026, as they recorded 1,721 illegal border crossings, most of which were of course on the border with Croatia. Most illegal migrants came from Afghanistan, where the Taliban rule, and Egypt and Sudan. In January 2025, only 1,169 illegal border crossings were registered, where illegal migrants from Afghanistan again dominated.

 Similar data is also available for February 2026. Last year, 2,385 migrants crossed the Slovenian border illegally, most of whom came from Afghanistan. This February, 3,576 illegal migrants crossed the Slovenian border illegally. The most common illegal migrants are from Afghanistan, Egypt and Bangladesh.

The most interesting are, of course, the reasons for illegal migration from Egypt. The Gulf War broke out recently, when Iran attacked the Arabian Peninsula. Egypt is not on the list of countries attacked. A war also broke out recently between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This year and last year, Iran's constant bombing and shelling of Israel did not cause a large number of illegal migrations to Europe. This can once again ignite debates about the justification of migration due to threats in one's own country or whether it is an exploitation of the migration system and international protection of migrants.

 In any case, in the EU, including Slovenia, we can expect, despite all the threats of attacks on the EU, a greater number of illegal migrants in the future. On the very periphery of the EU, in Ukraine, there has been a permanent state of war for four years due to the Russian invasion, which could easily spread to the EU area.

We can only hope that wars in the southern hemisphere or on the other side of the Mediterranean will not cause us to be able to mark 2026 as a year of paradise for illegal migration.

However, in Slovenia we can take solace for now in the reduced number of illegal residences in Slovenia. In January 2025, 167 cases of illegal residence were detected in Slovenia. In January this year, 114. In February of this year, more illegal residences were detected in Slovenia, namely 186. In February 2025, as many as 349 illegal residences were detected in Slovenia.

 In general and globally, according to the United Nations (UN), the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimated that there were 103 million forcibly displaced people in the world in mid-2022. Of these, 32.5 million were refugees, 53.2 million were internally displaced, 4.9 million were asylum seekers and 5.3 million were other people in need of international protection. More than seven out of ten refugees in the world came from just five countries: Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Afghanistan and South Sudan. The largest number of refugees in mid-2022 was in Turkey, which was hit by a missile attack from Iran this year, at 3.7 million, followed by Colombia, Germany, Pakistan and Uganda. More than two-thirds of refugees and other people in need of international protection lived in countries bordering their country of origin.

 According to the latest data for 2026, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has already helped 41 million people find legal migration routes. For now, they are mainly highlighting the multi-year and recurring crisis in Sudan.

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